China’s economy slowed in October

By LIU Lin

China’s economy slowed in October, with exports and retail sales both down, and the manufacturing sector sending a mixed message.

Retail sales dropped for the first time in five months by 0.5 percent from a year ago. Urban consumer spending shrank 0.6 percent. Rural spending kept growing but at a slower pace than in September.

The drop in restaurant revenue widened to 8.1 percent from September’s 1.7 percent. Sales of goods fared better than services, scoring a 0.5 percent increase. Spending on food and medicine maintained above 8 percent growth, while non-essential goods, such as cars, clothes and home appliances, either sold less or grew slower than in September.

Forecasts are pessimistic for the rest of the year considering the expected winter Covid surge. Over 10,000 new cases have been reported every day in November, affecting every province. When the government eased restrictions last week, the stock market and yuan rallied. But November looks grim: house sales, public transport ridership and box office are declining fast than in previous months.

Fixed asset investment for the first ten months of the year grew by 5.8 percent, slightly below the 5.9 percent cumulative growth as of September but still higher than from 2018 to 2020. This was mainly driven by infrastructure building and manufacturing investment, which grew 11.4 percent and 9.7 percent respectively. Real estate development, on the other hand, shrank 8.8 percent from January to October.

There are concerns about whether infrastructure and manufacturing can keep up the momentum for the rest of the year. The government can’t just keep approving new projects, and corporate loans, underwritten by local banks with the central bank as the ultimate lender. There is a risk of tipping the balance of the financial system loans balloon at the current pace.

Manufacturing profits declined 13.2 percent from January to September this year, with margins dropping below pre-pandemic levels. Some companies have decided to stay away from risk altogether. Bank deposit increased by 16.6 percent in October and is at the highest level since 2015.

Industry value added increased by 0.33 percent in October from the previous month, the lowest since May. Year-over-year growth slowed to 5 percent.

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